Saturday, August 31, 2013

Boudreaux on the Minimum Wage

Article Link

Source: Don Boudreaux, The Wages of Economic Ignorance, cafehayek.com, August 30, 2013

Analogy from the posting:
Do this mental experiment: Suppose government formally prohibits employers as well as all law-enforcement officials from prosecuting or otherwise in any way retaliating against or punishing employees who pilfer small amounts (say, cash or merchandise worth $50 or less each week) from their employers.  Would there be a serious debate about whether or not this enforced policy would prompt employers to protect themselves from the likely increase in pilfering by employees?  And suppose that after such a policy had been in place for a number of years some studies find that, as predicted by textbook neoclassical microeconomic theory, the employment prospects of workers and wannabe workers are reduced while other studies find no such negative effect.  Would it be regarded as an instance of responsible journalism to look only at the latter studies and then insist, based upon these studies, that increased employee pilfering – enforced by government! – has no effect on workers’ employment prospects?

Selgin on Money and the Depression

Article Link

Source: George Selgin, "Booms, Bubbles, Busts, and Bogus Dichotomies," freebanking.org, August 30, 2013

Immigration and Wages

Article Link

Source: Alex Tabarrok, "Immigration and Wages," marginalrevolution.com, August 30, 2013

Cardin on the "Underpants Gnomes" Economy

Article Link

Source: Art Cardin, "'Underpants Gnomes' Political Economy," Forbes, July 14, 2011

Friday, August 30, 2013

McCloskey on the 3000% Increase

Article Link
Source: Deirdre N. McCloskey, “Radical Idea That Inspired the Industrial Revolution: That Is: It's Good To Be Rich,” The New York Post, February 12, 2011

Text:
The usual history claims that the Industrial Revolution was born of investment or exploitation, higher saving rates or imperialism. But what if the revolution was sparked instead by changes in the way people thought, and especially by how they thought about each other? Suppose steam engines and computers came not from investment, but respect?

The theory goes like this. Until the Dutch around 1600 or the English around 1700, you got honor in only two ways: by being a soldier or a priest, in the castle or in the church. People who bought and sold things for a living were scorned as sinful cheaters. A jailer in the 13th century rejected a rich man’s pleas for mercy: “Come, Master Arnaud Teisseire, you have wallowed in such opulence! How could you be without sin?”
Then something changed. The reformations of Europe gave voice to ordinary people outside the hierarchies of aristocrats and bishops. If a congregation choose the minister, as happened in parts of the Reformation, then the ordinary man was empowered.
We came to admire men like Benjamin Franklin and Andrew Carnegie and Bill Gates. The middle class, the bourgeoisie, began to be viewed as good, and was allowed to do well. People signed on to a Bourgeois Deal that has characterized now-wealthy places such as Britain or Sweden or Hong Kong: “Let me innovate and make money in the short run out of the innovation, and in the long run I’ll make you rich.”
And that’s just what happened. Starting in the 1700s with Franklin’s lightning rod and Watt’s steam engine, and going nuts in the 1800s, and nuttier in the 1900s, the West, which for thousands of years had played technological second fiddle to China, became astoundingly innovative. Give the middle class dignity and liberty for the first time in human history and here’s what you get: the steam engine, the automatic textile loom, the assembly line, the symphony orchestra, the railway, the corporation, abolitionism, the steam printing press, cheap paper, literacy, cheap steel, cheap plate glass, the modern university, the modern newspaper, clean water, reinforced concrete, the women’s movement, the electric light, the elevator, the automobile, petroleum, vacations in Yellowstone, plastics, half a million new English-language books a year, hybrid corn, penicillin, the airplane, clean urban air, civil rights, open-heart surgery and the computer.
The result was that for the first time in human history the ordinary people, and especially the very poor, were made much better off. Much, much better off. According to the economic historian Angus Maddison, the average human before 1800 spent in today’s prices about $3 a day. That’s it. No loans from your brother in Queens, because he, too, lives on $3 a day. So does your cousin Louise. In fact, everyone you know except the local Big Man lives that way. No banks will lend you money. There are no rewards for good ideas.
Today you spend $100 a day. That’s the payoff from the Bourgeois Deal, a rise in the material welfare of ordinary people by more than a factor of 33.
Did we get rich, as the political left says, by exploiting slaves or workers, or from imperialism? No. The numbers are too big to be explained by zero-sum theft. If all the profits of the rich in the US economy today were handed over to the workers, the workers would only be about 30% better off. But in the last two centuries we’re 3000% better off. So it can’t be redistribution that made us rich.
Did we get rich, then, as the political right says, because of material investment, piling brick on brick, or high-school degree on high-school degree? No. The numbers again are too big to be explained by routine savings and investment, earning routine returns. The innovation was anything but routine. Wynton Marsalis and Geoffrey Ward call improvisation in jazz an “explosion of consensual creativity.” That’s what happened 1800 to today, the “invention of invention,” a “creative destruction” that replaced wood with steel, superstition with science, autocracy with democracy.
Depending exclusively on materialism to explain the modern world, in other words, whether left-wing historical materialism or right-wing economics, is mistaken. Ideas of human dignity and liberty did the trick. As the economic historian Joel Mokyr puts it, “Economic change in all periods depends, more than most economists think, on what people believe.” It was ideas that led to our enrichment.
In our own times the big economic story has not been the Great Recession of 2007–2009, unpleasant though it was. The story has been that the Chinese in 1978 and then the Indians in 1991 adopted true liberal ideas in the economy, and came to attribute a dignity and a liberty to the bourgeoisie formerly denied. China and India then exploded in economic growth. Perhaps Egypt and Brazil and South Africa will be next.
The biggest threat, meanwhile, to our prosperity is not temporary recessions, but permanent reversions to old attitudes towards profit and progress. When making money is demonized, when innovation is stifled, that’s when we lose what Adam Smith called “the obvious and simple system of natural liberty.” Respecting capitalism has worked pretty well for the people for two centuries. I reckon we should keep it.
Deirdre N. McCloskey is a professor of economics at the University of Illinois at Chicago. Her latest book “Bourgeois Dignity: Why Economics Can’t Explain the Modern World” (University of Chicago Press) is out now.

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Wren-Lewis on the Moral Hazzard of Bank Risk

Article Link

The subsides to big banks in the form of the implicit offer of  government bailouts because they are too big to fail explains why they risk holding so much debt.  Government's too big to fail fixation is explained by lobbying.
 
Simon Wren-Lewis, "Banks, Economists and Politicians: Just Follow the Money," mainlymacro.blogspot.com, August 26, 2013

McArdle on Wages at Costco and Walmart

Article Links: Megan McArdle on Wal-Mart vs. Costco, bloomberg.com, August  2013

1. Why Wal-Mart Will Never Pay Like Costco 

2. Costco's Second Class Citizens

3. Wal-Mart vs. Costco III: Why My Critics are Wrong






 


Sunday, August 25, 2013

Ridley on Fracking Myths

Article Link

Source: Matt Ridley, "Five Myths About Fracking," rationaloptimist.com, August 16, 2013

Austen the Austrian

Article Link

Source: Arah Skwire, "Austen the Austrian," fee.org/the_freeman, August 23, 2013

Thursday, August 22, 2013

Gladwell on the 10,000 Hour Rule

Article Link

Source: Malcolm Gladwell, "Complexity and the Ten-Thousand-Hour Rule," newyorker.com, August 21, 2013

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Taranto on Income Inequality

Article Link

Article Text:

In a post on the Washington Post's Wonkblog, Mike Konczal of the Roosevelt Institute makes a rather sweeping claim about his ideological adversaries: "Conservatives don't really get that some things are 'public,' and it's hurting their ability to handle the challenges of the early 21st century."
What does he mean by that? He acknowledges the term is ambiguous, then settles on a definition from a leading early-20th-century progressive intellectual:

One can spend an entire lifetime debating the distinction between "public" and "private," but for this post let's use an approach from John Dewey. In "The Public and Its Problems" (1927), Dewey argued that the public is involved wherever an action between two people has consequences "that extend beyond the two directly concerned." Given "that they affect the welfare of many others, the act acquires a public capacity." And as such needs a public response. And conservatives reject this.
This paragraph is either artfully or sloppily ambiguous. What exactly is "this" that "conservatives reject"? Dewey's expansive definition of "public capacity"? Or the conclusion that any act with a "public capacity" requires "a public response"--which Konczal takes to mean a governmental one?
In any case, even Konczal's take on Dewey is sufficient to knock down his straw-man conservatism. One may reject either proposition--that is, one may consider Dewey's definition of "public" overbroad or believe that not every "public" action calls for a governmental response--without categorically denying that "some things are 'public.' "
The specific examples Konczal cites are of two types. The first: libertarian arguments, offered by the journalist Tim Carney and the social scientist Charles Murray, that voluntary efforts to alleviate poverty and associated underclass behavioral problems are "better" than coercive ones. But libertarianism's actual first principle is not that nothing is "public." It is that coercion is morally objectionable.
He also fails to make the distinction between this objection to welfare-state policiesin principle and practical objections to them on the ground that they are ineffective or counterproductive or have other unanticipated ill consequences. The latter is the thrust of much of Murray's empirical work.
Konczal's second set of examples consists of mainstream conservatives' objections to the contemporary left-liberal claim that, as Konczal puts it, "inequality is a public problem." Tellingly, he doesn't think to specify inequality of income; it becomes clear that's what he means when he goes on to quote extensively from a speech in which President Obama offered various arguments for the proposition.
None of these arguments are actually necessary if you accept the Dewey-Konczal definition of a "public problem." Why? Take a simple example: Mr. A and Mr. B work for Mr. C. Mr. A makes $40,000 a year, and Mr. B makes $60,000. Let's stipulate further that the income differential is "fair"--that B's contributions to C's business are exactly half again as great as A's because he works harder, or has superior skills, or is a more loyal employee, than A. That is to say, B is not getting rich at A's expense.
We've set up the example in such a way that, at least within the closed universe of our three-man company, the pay scale appears to be a genuinely "private" transaction as per to Dewey-Konczal. A's salary is of no concern to B, and vice versa. Each worker's pay level is between him and C.

But wait. That changes as soon as you introduce the idea of inequality of income, which defines each man's income in terms of the other's. A makes only 67% of what B makes; B makes 1.5 times what A makes. These ratios get "worse"--the "inequality" expands--if B gets a raise or A gets a pay cut while the other man's pay stays the same, even if the change in pay is made purely on the merits and has nothing to do with the other worker.

Debates over "inequality" usually deal in statistics, not individual comparisons, but we can illustrate that even with our micro-example. A's earnings are 20% below average, and B's are 20% above. Again, these proportions change if one employee's income does, even if it is for reasons unrelated to the other employee.

Ah, but we haven't accounted for C. Let's say C turns a profit of exactly $50,000, making that the median as well as the average income. Suppose the following year he's hit by the cost of complying with some new regulatory burden, so that after making payroll (with no salary cuts, but no raises either), his profits are only $10,000. Now B is making a whopping two-thirds more than the average income of $36,000, and even A is comfortably "middle class," earning exactly the median income and 11% more than the average!
Or maybe not so comfortably. A few more years like that, and A, B and C will all be looking for new jobs.

The example illustrates two points. First, by the Dewey-Konczal definition, the assertion that "inequality is a public problem" is a tautology. Merely conceiving of income in comparative terms makes everyone's income everyone else's concern and therefore, according to Konczal's reasoning, justifies any "public response"--any governmental intervention that affects income.

Second, "equality" is an arbitrary goal--one that may come into conflict with other goals, such as the long-term viability of a business (as in our example) or the overall economy. Further, even the idea that equality of income is just flies in the face of common sense. If you really believed it, you'd have rejected as false by definition our stipulation that B deserved his higher pay.

It turns out Konczal doesn't really believe it either. To see why, look at what he presents as his most central argument:
[Obama] describes "an even more fundamental issue at stake." And here is the idea that "gaping inequality gives the lie to the promise that's at the very heart of America: that this is a place where you can make it if you try." Stagnation, entrenched multi-generational inequality, and runaway incomes reflect an economy where a rising tide doesn't lift all boats and the rising from one class to another is next to impossible, causing a problem for everyone.
Implicit in the Obama quote is a rejection of equality of income as an ideal state. Income inequality is not only consistent with "the promise that's at the very heart of America" but a necessary result of its fulfillment. If everyone earned the same income as everyone else every year, nobody could ever be said to "make it."

True, the president qualifies his statement by limiting it to "gaping" inequality, whatever that means. Konczal refers to the "entrenched multi-generational" kind and to "runaway" incomes. Thus this passage turns out to be heavier on adjectives than on thought. As to Konczal's complaint that "a rising tide doesn't lift all boats," that's mathematically impossible when the altitude of each boat is being measured relative to the other boats!

In short, Konczal's whole argument collapses into vagueness and incoherence.

None of this is to deny that there are some genuine public problems behind the statistical construct of "gaping inequality." In particular, the problem of the underclass--of persistent poverty, seems to us to merit a governmental response. But note that even Carney's and Murray's libertarian positions, whatever one may think of them, are consistent with that concession. Rolling back the welfare state would certainly be a governmental response.

Konczal mocks Charles Murray for arguing, in "Coming Apart: The State of White America," that "a private solution of elites shaming the poor is better than any government response to the trials faced by working-class whites." (To clarify, while most of Murray's data are specific to whites, that
 argument is not.)It may be that Konczal's muddled thinking about "inequality" is the product of his reluctance to grapple with the implications of his own first principles. For if taken seriously, the Dewey-Konczal argument about "public" problems leads in directions that would make most of today's liberals highly uncomfortable.
It seems to us that Konczal has identified a genuine weakness of "Coming Apart," which we read and with which we were generally impressed. Murray's faith in the power of elite moral suasion struck us as unrealistic (though we imagine it would be a lot less harmful and costly than whatever "governmental solution" Konczal would propose).

But when you consider the social problems Murray identifies--problems that are worse among nonwhites than among whites--a lot of them implicate what most liberals would consider private decisions: decisions, that is, about sex, marriage and reproduction.
Aren't these decisions "public" by the Dewey-Konczal definition--particularly under a welfare state? Most obviously, a decision to have sex can produce a child; a poor woman's decision to have sex outside wedlock greatly increases the likelihood that the child will be a burden on the public fisc.

But it's not just poor people whose sexual, reproductive and marital decisions have effects beyond themselves. Sexual-marketplace theory teaches that prevailing mores and expectations are not simply handed down by "elites": They are an effect of individual actions (in the aggregate) as well as a cause.

Nor is the public effect of reproductive choices limited to those poor enough to be on what we usually think of as "welfare." Declining fertility threatens the long-term solvency of the middle-class entitlements, Social Security and Medicare. Thus every person's sexual behavior, every decision to marry or not, every woman's decision about whether to have children has a public effect.

You may object that the public effect of any such individual decision is too negligible to justify government intrusion. But in the realm of commerce, the left rejects that claim. In Wickard v. Filburn (1942), the landmark New Deal case, the U.S. Supreme Court held that the government could regulate a farmer's use of home-grown wheat on the basis of just such an aggregate effect: "That appellee's own contribution to the demand for wheat may be trivial by itself is not enough to remove him from the scope of federal regulation where, as here, his contribution, taken together with that of many others similarly situated, is far from trivial."

How, then, can sexual and reproductive liberty--the very soul of contemporary liberalism--be justified in Dewey-Konczal terms if economic liberty cannot?

Source: James Taranto, "Is Any Thing Private?" from Best of the Web Today, The Wall Street Journal, August 21, 2013

Global Warming Satire

Article Link

Article Text: 
 
STUDY: Climate change causing climate models to become less reliable

A groundbreaking new study has shown that climate change is the underlying cause of increasingly frequent and severe climate model failures. Researchers at Pennsylvania State Community College have discovered a critical link between atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration and general circulation model errors.

“Climate change has made it increasingly difficult to predict climate change,” says Dr. Manyard Michael, the lead scientist behind the study. “The current 16 year pause in global warming illustrates just how serious this situation has been; if not for climate change, we now know that we would have been able to accurately predict the current break in warming and clearly show that climate change is actually accelerating faster than forecast – not stopping as climate change is making it appear to those outside of the climate science community.” Dr. Michael also noted that they stumbled on this important finding almost by accident. “We just happened to notice that the higher carbon dioxide concentrations climbed, the more we had to adjust the data to get the results we knew to be right, and the more we adjusted the data, the bigger the error in the models. It’s a very strong positive feedback.”



This research has been quietly in the works for several years, and was almost compromised by the 2009 research theft known as “climategate.” For example, one particular email that has been cited repeatedly said in part, “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” Skeptics have misrepresented this quote to suggest that climate scientists can’t explain why the climate is not behaving as forecast and thus there is no climate change happening when in actuality, the researcher was lamenting exactly the opposite. He knew the fact that climate models did not predict a lack of warming meant climate change had progressed much faster than previously thought, and he was expressing sadness that man has brought the climate to this point.

Climate change deniers and anti-science websites have long grasped at the seemingly endless string of model failures and ever increasing forecast error as a way to argue the theory that humans are causing global warming is somehow falsified. Noted climate modeler Dr. Hans Jameson of the National Model Rocket Association commented, “thanks to this research, we can say with certainty what we in the climate research community known all along, that the bigger the climate model errors, the more confident we can be that manmade climate change is happening.” Because climate change continues to accelerate faster than at any time since before the dinosaurs, the scientific consensus is that that there will be some truly stunning model failures on the horizon.

The researchers also stressed that mainstream climate science has demonstrated a remarkable ability to hindcast. As Dr. Michael points out “we can now predict the lull in warming of the past 16 years with surprising accuracy.” He further remarked that “given how well we can predict the past, the only thing that explains the difficulty of forecasting the future with equal success is the increasing concentration of greenhouse gasses. This research changes everything.” And while they are yet unable to fully explain the exact mechanics behind the correlation, the researchers expressed 99% confidence in their conclusion.

The study which is set to be published in every scientific journal is expected to open up new areas of unprecedented spending in the emerging field of climate research.

Source: Marlo Lewis, "Is Climate Change Causing Climate Models to Fail?" globalwarming.org, August 21, 2013

Monday, August 19, 2013

Boudreaux on Knowedge

Article Link

The tacit knowledge and almost infinite number of people involved in producing  a coffee maker.

Source: Don Boudreaux, Quotation of the Day," cafehayek.com, August 19, 2013


Ridley on Ecology or Economics

Article Link

This article includes a 20 minute video. Source: Matt Ridley, "Ecology and Economics: Which Has Done More for Our Environmental Future?" perc.org, February 7, 2013

Is Economics More Like History Than Physics?

Article Link


Source:  Jag Bhalla, “Is Economics More Like History Than Physics?” blogs.scientificamerican.com, August16, 2013

Pinker on Science Is Not Your Enemy


Article Link

Source: Steven Pinker, “Science Is Not Your Enemy: An Impassioned Plea to Neglected Novelists, Embattled Professors, and Tenure-Less Historians, “newrepublic.com, August 6, 2013