Thursday, February 27, 2014

Joseph Bottum on the New Non-Christain Protestant Class

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From the Article:

The new elite class of America is the old one: America’s mainline Protestant Christians in both the glory and the annoyingness of their moral confidence and spiritual certainty. They just stripped out the Christianity along the way.

and

The failure to achieve a new synthesis, however, derives most of all from the simple fact that an enormous number, an entire social class of American Protestants became neither Evangelicals, nor Catholics. They simply stopped being Christian believers, even while they kept the assurance of their Protestant parents that they represented the center of American culture.

This is where the mainline went. And many members of this new class are entirely representative, educated with a postgraduate degree, churchless, successful, somewhat fragile in their finances, and utterly confident about the essential moral rightness of their social and political opinions.

. . .  Over the past 50 years or so, these post-Protestants have gradually formed the core of a new and fascinating social class in America. Although not as dominant as their genuinely Protestant forebears once were, they nonetheless set the tone for much of our current political discourse. And we can recognize their origins in mainline Protestantism when we discern some of the ways in which they see the world and themselves. They are, for the most part, politically liberal, preferring that government rather than private associations address social concerns. They remained puritanical and highly judgmental, at least about health. And like all puritans, they are willing to use law to compel behavior they think right.


Source: The Post-Protestant Ethic and Spirit of America, The American, February 22, 2014

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Goldberg on Stakeholders

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From the Article:
Where government's touch is light, we see rapid innovation, but where government's hand is heavy, stakeholders are holding on for dear life.

and 

The standard left-wing complaint is to blame only big business and capitalism. But if you don't think the exact sort of thing happens under socialist and communist systems, you don't know anything about those systems.

Despite a century of anti-corporate rhetoric about the power of corporations, they actually come and go with amazing rapidity (Only 13% of firms on the Fortune 500 list in 1955 were there in 2011).

But government is forever. The state has the unique ability to protect existing "stakeholders" from the threats posed by innovation and competition, whether those stakeholders are businesses or unions, fat cats or philanthropies. That's where the votes are and where the checks comes from.

But progress — material, medical, economic — comes from innovation. Economist Deirdre McCloskey notes that until the 19th century, innovation was a negative word because innovators upset the established order and the powers that be.

Source, Jonah Goldberg, "Want an America That Works? Innovate, Don't Regulate," The Los Angles Times, February 25, 2014

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Stephen Walt on the Ten Best Articles in IR

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From the Article:
1. Albert Wohlstetter, "The Delicate Balance of Terror." Foreign Affairs (1957)
2. Mancur Olson and Richard Zeckhauser, "An Economic Theory of Alliances." Review of Economics and Statistics, (1966)3. Kenneth Waltz, "International Structure, National Force, and the Balance of World Power," Journal of International Affairs, (1967)
4. Robert Jervis, "Hypotheses on Misperception," World Politics (1968)
5. Michael Doyle, "Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs," Philosophy and Public Affairs, (1983) or "Liberalism and World Politics," American Political Science Review (1986)
6. John Ruggie, "International Regimes, Transactions, and Change: Embedded Liberalism in the Postwar Economic Order," International Organization (1983)
7. Alexander Wendt, "Anarchy is What States Make of It," International Organization (1992)
8. Martha Finnemore and Kathryn Sikkink, "International Norm Dynamics and Political Change," International Organization (1998)
9. William C. Wohlforth, "The Stability of a Unipolar World." International Security (1999)
10. Alexander George's "Case Studies and Theory Development: The Method of Structured, Focused Comparison," in P.G. Lauren, Diplomacy: New Approaches

Honorable Mentions: My list here could go on forever, but here are few articles that I've particularly enjoyed and/or learned from: George Kennan, "The Sources of Soviet Conduct," Foreign Affairs; Stephen Krasner, "State Power and the Structure of International Trade”, World Politics; Chaim Kauffman and Robert Pape, "Explaining Costly Moral Action: Britain and the Abolition of the Slave Trade," International Organization; Barry Posen, "Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of U.S. Hegemony, International Security; James Fearon, "Rationalist Theories of War," International Organization; Andrew Mack, "Why Big Powers Lose Small Wars: The Politics of Asymmetric Conflict,” World Politics; Robert Jervis, "Cooperation under the Security Dilemma, World Politics; and "Why Nuclear Superiority Doesn't Matter," Political Science Quarterly; Robert Keohane, "The Demand for International Regimes, International Organization; John Gaddis, “The Long Peace: Elements of Stability in the Postwar International System,” International Security; Stanley Hoffmann, "Obstinate or Obsolete: The Fate of the Nation State in Western Europe," Daedalus; Timur Kuran, “Now out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the Revolutions of 1989," World Politics; and Graham Allison, "Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis," American Political Science Review.

Source: Stephen Walt, "The Busy Person's Guide to IR Theory,"  Foreign Policy, May 22, 2009.

Kling on Phelps Contention that Modernism Has Been Reversed

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From the article:

[Phelps] contends that starting around 1970s, America’s commitment to modern values started to recede, and we began reverting to traditionalism. That in turn leads to reduced innovation and slower economic growth.

Evidence for Phelp's position:
  • decline in the propensity of young adults to move far from their parents (or even out of the house!)
  • increase in NIMBYism (often masquerading as environmental concern), blocking development, for example, of airports.
  • lower rate of new business formation
  • stifling safety regulations (in nuclear power and in drug development)
  • resistance to innovation in food production (GMOs)
  • demonization of the 1 percent
  • hostility to energy production and consumption

What Phelps means by modern values are individualism, self-reliance, and striving for individual excellence. By his standards, he would argue that those values are on the decline. This is a topic that is a bit squishy for economists to try to grasp, but I am not certain that Phelps is wrong.

Source: Arnold Kling, The Phelps Contention, AskBlog.com, February 23, 2014

Friday, February 21, 2014

Levels of Excellence

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From the article:

1) Excellence comes from qualitative changes in behavior, not just quantitative ones. More time practicing is not good enough. Nor is simply moving your arms faster! A low-level breaststroke swimmer does very different things than a top-ranked one. The low-level swimmer tends to pull her arms far back beneath her, kick the legs out very wide without bringing them together at the finish, lift herself high out of the water on the turn, and fail to go underwater for a long ways after the turn. The top-ranked one sculls her arms out to the side and sweeps back in, kicks narrowly with the feet finishing together, stays low on the turns, and goes underwater for a long distance after the turn. They’re completely different!

2) The different levels of excellence in swimming are like different worlds, with different rules. People can move up or down within a level by putting in more or less effort, but going up a level requires something very different—see point 1).

3) Excellence is not the product of socially deviant personalities. The best swimmers aren’t “oddballs,” nor are they loners—kids who have given up “the normal teenage life”.
4) Excellence does not come from some mystical inner quality of the athlete. Rather, it comes from learning how to do lots of things right.

5) The best swimmers are more disciplined. They’re more likely to be strict with their training, come to workouts on time, watch what they eat, sleep regular hours, do proper warmups before a meet, and the like.

6) Features of the sport that low-level swimmers find unpleasant, excellent swimmers enjoy. What others see as boring – swimming back and forth over a black line for two hours, say – the best swimmers find peaceful, even meditative, or challenging, or therapeutic. They enjoy hard practices, look forward to difficult competitions, and try to set difficult goals.

7) The best swimmers don’t spend a lot of time dreaming about big goals like winning the Olympics. They concentrate on “small wins”: clearly defined minor achievements that can be rather easily done, but produce real effects.

8) The best swimmers don’t “choke”. Faced with what seems to be a tremendous challenge or a strikingly unusual event such as the Olympic Games, they take it as a normal, manageable situation. One way they do this is by sticking to the same routines. Chambliss calls this the “mundanity of excellence”.

Source: John Carlos Baez, "Levels of Excellence," Azimuth, September 29, 2013

Stephen Walt's Ten Best Books in IR

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1). Kenneth Waltz, Man, the State, and War.
2). Jared Diamond, Guns, Germs, and Steel.
3). Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence.  
4). James Scott, Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed
5). David Halberstam, The Best and the Brightest
6). Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics.
7). John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.
8). Ernst Gellner, Nations and Nationalism.
9). Henry A. Kissinger, White House Years & Years of Upheaval.
10). Karl Polanyi, The Great Transformation

So that's ten, but I can't resist tossing in a few others in passing: Geoffrey Blainey The Causes of War; Douglas North, Structure and Change in Economic History; Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer, Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia’s Surplus Male Population; Robert Gilpin, The Political Economy of International Relations; Steve Coll, Ghost Wars; T.C.W. Blanning, The Origins of the French Revolutionary Wars; R. R. Palmer, The Age of the Democratic Revolution; Avi Shlaim, The Iron Wall: Israel and the Arab World; Stephen Van Evera, Causes of War; Samuel Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies; Tony Smith, The Problem of Imperlalism; and Philip Knightley's The First Casualty: The War Correspondent as Hero, Propagandist, and Myth-Maker. And as I said, this just scratches the surface.    

Source: Stephen Walt, "My "Top Ten" Books Every Student of International Relations Should Read,"
Foreign Policy, April 9, 2009

Friday, February 14, 2014

Caplin on College and Wasted Retention Efforts

Article Link

From the article:

Let me illustrate.  Suppose you're at the 90th-percentile of high school graduates, so your probability of graduating college if you enroll is around 90%.  When the college premium ascends from 50% to 70%, your expected premium goes from 45% to 63%.  In plain English, the payoff goes from very good to excellent.  Either way, enrollment is a no-brainer.

If instead you're at the 25th-percentile of high school graduates, your probability of graduating college if you enroll is around 20%.  When the college premium ascends from 50% to 70%, your expected premium goes from 10% to 14%.  In plain English, the payoff goes from really crummy to crummy.  Either way, non-enrollment is a no-brainer... especially when you dwell on the fact that colleges don't refund drop-outs' tuition, much less the earnings and work experience they forfeited to attend.

Source: Brian Caplan,"What Bad Students Know that Good Economists Don't," EconLog, February 13, 2013

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

I-Phone Cost in 1991

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From the article:
But the fact that so many were so impressed by an assertion that an iPhone possesses the capabilities of $3,000 worth of 1991 electronics products – when the actual figure exceeds $3 million – reveals how fundamentally difficult it is to think in exponential terms.
Innovation blindness, I’ve long argued, is a key obstacle to sound economic and policy thinking. And this is a perfect example. When we make policy based on today’s technology, we don’t just operate mildly sub-optimally. No, we often close off entire pathways to amazing innovation.
- See more at: http://www.techpolicydaily.com/communications/much-iphone-cost-1991/#sthash.feq3pHN8.dpuf
But the fact that so many were so impressed by an assertion that an iPhone possesses the capabilities of $3,000 worth of 1991 electronics products – when the actual figure exceeds $3 million – reveals how fundamentally difficult it is to think in exponential terms.
Innovation blindness, I’ve long argued, is a key obstacle to sound economic and policy thinking. And this is a perfect example. When we make policy based on today’s technology, we don’t just operate mildly sub-optimally. No, we often close off entire pathways to amazing innovation.
- See more at: http://www.techpolicydaily.com/communications/much-iphone-cost-1991/#sthash.feq3pHN8.dpuf



But the fact that so many were so impressed by an assertion that an iPhone possesses the capabilities of $3,000 worth of 1991 electronics products – when the actual figure exceeds $3 million – reveals how fundamentally difficult it is to think in exponential terms.

Innovation blindness, I’ve long argued, is a key obstacle to sound economic and policy thinking. And this is a perfect example. When we make policy based on today’s technology, we don’t just operate mildly sub-optimally. No, we often close off entire pathways to amazing innovation.


Source:  Bret Swanson, “How Much Would an iPhone Have Cost in 1991?” techpolicydaily.com, February 3, 2014

How much would an iPhone have cost in 1991?

- See more at: http://www.techpolicydaily.com/communications/much-iphone-cost-1991/#sthash.feq3pHN8.dpuf

How much would an iPhone have cost in 1991?

- See more at: http://www.techpolicydaily.com/communications/much-iphone-cost-1991/#sthash.feq3pHN8.dpuf

Haidt on Reason and Sam Harris

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From the article:

To check my hunch, I took the full text of the three most important New Atheist books—Richard Dawkins’ The God Delusion, Sam Harris’s The End of Faith, and Daniel Dennett’s Breaking the Spell and I ran the files through a widely used text analysis program that counts words that have been shown to indicate certainty, including “always,” “never,” “certainly,” “every,” and “undeniable.” To provide a close standard of comparison, I also analyzed three recent books by other scientists who write about religion but are not considered New Atheists: Jesse Bering’s The Belief Instinct, Ara Norenzayan’s Big Gods, and my own book The Righteous Mind. (More details about the analysis can be found here.)

To provide an additional standard of comparison, I also analyzed books by three right wing radio and television stars whose reasoning style is not generally regarded as scientific. I analyzed Glenn Beck’s Common Sense, Sean Hannity’s Deliver Us from Evil, and Anne Coulter’s Treason. (I chose the book for each author that had received the most comments on Amazon.) As you can see in the graph, the New Atheists win the "certainty" competition. Of the 75,000 words in The End of Faith, 2.24% of them connote or are associated with certainty. (I also analyzed The Moral Landscape—it came out at 2.34%.)

 .
 In the opening paragraph of his Enquiry Concerning the Principles of Morals, David Hume described the futility of arguing with people who are overly certain about their principles. He noted that “as reasoning is not the source, whence [such a] disputant derives his tenets; it is in vain to expect, that any logic, which speaks not to the affections, will ever engage him to embrace sounder principles.” If Hume is right, then what is the likely outcome of The Moral Landscape Challenge? What are the odds that anyone will change Harris’s mind with a reasoned essay of under 1000 words? I’ll put my money on Hume and issue my own challenge, The Righteous Mind challenge: If anyone can convince Harris to renounce his views, I’ll pay Harris the $10,000 that it would cost him to do so.

Source: Jonathan Haidt, "Why Sam Harris is Unlikely to Change his Mind," thisviewoflife.com, February 3, 2014

Monday, February 3, 2014

Moral Equivalence of Capitalism and Communism

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From the article:

Most of what Americans think they know about capitalism and communism is total nonsense. Here's a clearer picture

Source: Jesse Myerson, "Why You’re Wrong About Communism: 7 Huge Misconceptions About It (And Capitalism),” Slate, February 2, 2014




Saturday, February 1, 2014

California Drops Home Food Ban and Creates Thousands of Businesses

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From the article:

Stambler helped Assemblyman Gatto draft the California Homemade Food Act (AB 1616) to legalize cottage food.  AB 1616 was overwhelmingly popular with lawmakers, passing the California State Assembly 60 to 16 and unanimously passing the state Senate in August 2012.  Upon signing the bill, Gov. Jerry Brown praised AB 1616 as a way to “make it easier for people to do business in California.”

In January 2013, just a few days after the law went into effect, Stambler became the first person in Los Angeles County to sell homemade food legally.  Since he’s re-started his business, he hasn’t received a single complaint from consumers.

More home bakers have followed.  In Los Angeles County, there are almost 270 cottage food businesses.  Statewide, over 1,200 homemade food businesses have been approved.

Source: Nick Sibilla, "California Legalized Selling Food Made At Home And Created Over A Thousand Local Businesses, Forbes, January 29, 2014

Henderson on Occupational Licensing

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From the article:

Some evidence suggests that licensing does restrict the supply of workers in regulated occupations. One application focuses on the comparison of occupations that are licensed in some states and not in others. The occupations examined were librarians (licensed in 19 states), respiratory therapists (licensed in 35 states), and dietitians and nutritionists (licensed in 36 states) from 1990 to 2000 using Census data (Kleiner, 2006). Using controls for state characteristics, the multivariate estimates showed that in the states where the occupations were unlicensed there was a 20 percent faster growth rate than in states that did license these occupations. Another study found that the imposition of greater licensing requirements for funeral directors is associated with fewer women holding jobs as funeral directors relative to men by 18 to 24 percent (Cathles, Harrington, and Krynski, 2009).

and

The results of these wage equations are consistent with the interpretation that licensing policy enables the individuals in a licensed job to obtain a degree of monopoly control, or the ability to "fence out" competitors for a service, which results in increased wages for licensed workers.

Source: David Henderson, "The Gains from Getting Rid of "Run Amok" Occupational Licensing," econlog.com, January 31, 2014